Hi all,

I will tabulate the profit and loss totals to date within the next week. The results for my published tips were better this weekend than last weekend, though a fixed stake for the weekends fixtures yielded a small loss.

I actually made a substantial profit this weekend, as I took on several additional bets beyond those outlined in my last post, and these turned the weekend round. I laid Colchester at Ipswich which came in, and backed the draw in theVilla v Watford game and traded out after about 65 minutes for a decent profit. I also traded in the Newcastle game when they had clawed their way back to 2-2 for a small loss, and locked in profit on the Reading v Sheffield Utd fixture once Reading had taken a 3 goal lead. Today I took Arsenal to win at 13.5 after they had gone 0-1 down, and they just nicked it at the death, so all in all it was a very satisfactory weekend for the fund.

I would say that the premiership bets that I recommend are very much opening positions from my point of view, and I often trade out of them when there are managed in running markets. Unfortunately, it is not possible to do this with the Championship bets, unless they fall on a weekday when there is no premiership action. For this reason, I regard the Championship matches as the ones where betting, rather than trading, skil,ls are maximised, and it is for this reason that I persist with betting on that league even though it is less predictable through statistical analysis. I also had another losing bet. I backed the over 2.5 goals in the Arsenal - Man Utd game which finished over 2.5, but at 0-0 at half-time I traded out for a loss.

Championship

Luton v Barnsley Home win (1.98 Betdaq) Result 0-2  

Preston v Stoke Home win (1.96 Betdaq) Result 3-2 

QPR v Southampton (Southampton) AH 0 (1.76 Betdaq) Result 0-2

Premiership

Reading v Sheffield United Home win (1.93 Betfair) Result 3-1

Fulham v Tottenham over 2.5 goals (2.06 Betfair) Result 1-1

Newcastle v West Ham Home win (2.02 Betfair) Result 2-2

Hi all,

after a somewhat lacklustre start last week, my public picks for this weekends round of football matches are as follows:

Championship

Luton v Barnsley Home win (1.98 Betdaq)

Luton put in some good performances against superior opposition recently. Backing them to ease their relegation worries at home to a Barnsley side who are now really struggling.

Preston v Stoke Home win (1.96 Betdaq)

The cream of Stoke's loan signings this season have gone back to base, though they have recently acquired another, Matteo from Blackburn. I see Preston nicking this one.

QPR v Southampton (Southampton) AH 0 (1.76 Betdaq)

QPR are without Cook, a key player. Southampton are the top away scorers in the division. Covering the draw here and taking the AH off 0.

Premiership

Reading v Sheffield United Home win (1.93 Betfair)

Both teams have done well this season so far, especially of course Reading, who have been very strong at the Madjeski, including the recent hammering of West Ham. Doyle is out, but they have Kitson back.

Fulham v Tottenham over 2.5 goals (2.06 Betfair)

Both teams have been involved in some goalfests this season, I think this could be another one.

Newcastle v West Ham Home win (2.02 Betfair)

Confess to being on this game while Newcastle were at 1.8 prior to the bad loss to Birmingham in midweek.  West Ham have been disastrous away this season, and Newcastle had been running into some form, having become the top team of the bottom half of the prem table. Newcastle have Parker back for this game, and West Ham are without arguably theire best player, Tevez (yes really). Can't see where West Ham's goals are going to come from today. So all in all a risky one, but I think Newcastle will have learnt something from their midweek defeat, and come back here. Not altogether confident here!

Thinking about some others, but these are the one's I've actually got money on.

Good luck with your own bets.

Fenland T

Hi,

not exactly a great start with my Championship tips with only 1 out of 4 doing the business.

West Brom v Luton   : Home win @ 1.63
Cardiff v Southend : draw (low stake) @ 3.70
Colchester v Leicester : Home win @ 1.94
Stoke v Wolves : Home win @ 2.22

Not what my model predicted, but in this game you have to take the rough with the smooth.

Cardiff v Southend was a long shot - in the end Southend got the away victory. They did too much! Also, Colchester's amazing run of consecutive home wins came to an end, and Stoke couldn't find a way past Wolves. Still, it is early doors.

It would have been a pretty poor weekend for the fund, but it was saved with some good fortune on the Spurs v Newcastle game. I had Spurs to win, and when they were 2-1 up, noticed someone had offered 66-1 on Newcastle winning with about 20-25 minutes left. This offer was understandable given that Spurs had been rampant and could have been 3 or 4 up, but it seemed too long. So I had a 50p on the Newcastle win, and luck was on my side today.

That brings me on to the main point of this post, which is evaluating pros and cons of Betfair and Betdaq.

From the point of view of those who play with small stakes, Betdaq has an advantage, since it allows trading with a smaller minimum stake (50p), albeit at slightly less favourable prices. As a player with small stakes, many times I have been frustrated with Betfair's £2 minimum bet as it has not allowed me to trade out from winning positions without adopting statistically foolish positions.  Same thing with post-ante bets. An adopted market position can have been proved correct by a change in the market in the backed direction, but if constrained by the minimum bet, then it is not possible to "trade out" without taking the opposite of the opening position.

Maybe the reason for the Betfair minimum bet is to dissuade people who don't have lots of money to spend on gambling. Perhaps it is because small stakes gamblers are considered to be such small-fry that they are not worth catering for. Perhaps it is because it gives an advantage to players with large banks. Perhaps it is because nobody at Betfair has really considered this issue. Perhaps it is none of the above. But Betdaq does allow me to do trade with lesser amounts. As a consequence, I am placing more bets with Betdaq now.

There also seems to be a higher liquidity on Betdaq at the moment than there was a few months back, at least on in-running football fixtures. Quite a lot of football gamblers/traders have been pretty noisy on the Betfair forums recently at mysterious interruptions to in-running games suspending for the duration of a game when advertised as in-running, and also other issues, such as screen freezes following site upgrades. I have been unable to trade on Betfair several times because of such issues, and it has cost me several times. Betdaq has not, to my knowledge suffered these outages. Maybe the increase in liquidity is a consequence of some traders deciding to put their money where their mouth is and use Betdaq.

A downside from my point of view with Betdaq is that it does not have the Betfair "what if" feature which calculates the results of hedging. I feel that if Betdaq were to offer this, then they would win significantly more custom. For the newcomer especially, this is a barrier, though I'm I've gone so many rounds in the last few months that the arithmetic is becoming more automatic for me, and is not such an obstacle. However, if Betdaq do work on this feature, then please don't bring it on-line until any bugs are sorted.

Betfair obviously has other advantages, such as the forum, and the live video. However, Betdaq has been responding with some pretty nifty features of it's own, such as support for accas, and recently, an in-running Asian handicap market.

I recently read a book "guide to the betting exchanges" (or something like that), which contains a chapter indicating that there was only room in the betting exchange market for a single player, analogous to there being just one stock exchange. I think that is just plain wrong. Just as there is no high street monopoly on bookies, I can't see a good reason why there should not be space for competing betting exchanges.

regards,

FT

good luck,

FT

Evening all,

as promised here are some Championship fixture tips, from games to be played on the 12th and 13th of this month. These have been selected quite methodically, but of course there are no guarantees, especially in a division which constantly throws up surprise results.

West Brom v Luton   : Home win @ 1.63
Cardiff v Southend : draw (low stake) @ 3.70
Colchester v Leicester : Home win @ 1.94
Stoke v Wolves : Home win @ 2.22

West Brom score and win a lot at home but not away. Luton concede a lot away from home. 1.63 still looks reasonably (just).

Southend have a lot of draws in their matches to date. Cardiff have been stuttering.

Colchester have been on fire at Layer Road, and while they continue to win, I'll continue to back them. Don't know how they do it, but these odds are still represent good value for a team with their outstanding home record, even though their run must come to an end sometime (been saying that for weeks now!). Leicester don't concede many, but they don't score many either, while the 2 main Colchester strikers (Cureton and Iwelumo), are in a personal competition to be the top goalscorer for their club, and have both been very prolific at home.

Stoke have been in good form, and take on the low scoring Wolves at home in a division where home advantage is more important than in the prem. Surprised their odds are still > 2.0 - possibly this is due to loan signings returning to base.

There are a few other draw lays I would recommend, but these caught my eye in this division and are my own early selections.

regards,

Fenland T.

I think Steve Coppell is a great manager. Top drawer. Has worked miracles at Reading.

Wonder what odds you could get on him succeeding either Jose Mourinho when he's fired, or Sir Alex when he's retired!

happy new year,

FT

Hi,

I've spent quite a lot of time analysing football match data while I've had some time off the Xmas (sad but true), and have found a few promising findings, including one which appears to yield a statistically significant profit across the season to date (meaning only that the profit yielded would almost certainly be greater than zero, which is not exactly earth-shattering). My calculations suggest that there is only a 2 in 1000  likelihood that the selections using the model would not yield a profit greater than 0, with 95% confidence that the profit would be between £0.84 and £3.40 per game with a £10 stake). I am somewhat cautious regarding investigative data analysis, since there is an inherent danger that "relationships" will be found which appear useful but which are statistically spurious. However, I am satisfied enough that this is a robust finding to start staking units from the fund. I also feel that more confident about staking with a statistical approach.

I'll post some tips up here from time to time when I get time to run and validate my prediction routines. Unfortunately, there are only a limited number of fixtures that satisfy the selection criteria, and for the sake of the fund I will only post a subset of predictions, as the market constantly adapts to new information in such a way that opportunities to win are proportional to the availability of valid predictive information, and I've put a lot of time into this.

I am also conscious that given my cautious approach, and my discipline in not increasing my betting bank with my own savings, the bank has been too small to yield anything but very small profits, which renders the time put into the data collection and analysis very expensive. That is an additional reason why I took the slightly painful step of releasing funds from winning post-ante bets that would only be settled in May (e.g. Reading to avoid relegation) so that hopefully the fund might benefit from a slightly larger unit stake per bet, and more of the bank be "exercised" on a regular basis. I admit it, it wasn't strictly just an altruistic act!

regards,

FT

Hi there,

well, the New Year is nearly here, and I thought I'd sum up the progress of the fund to date. I've also highlighted a tip which I think is a value bet. I've taken it already at small stakes, and would have gone in more heavily if I did not need to maintain discipline.

I've been fairly fortunate in my bets and the charitable fund is increasing in size. It started out at £340, and isn't doing too badly.

Betfair current account = £178.12

Betfair ante poste bets yet to be settled = £304.30

Assuming that my post-ante bets return neither a profit nor a loss, then the total account would stand at around £582, which is a significant increment on the £340 starting fund. As it is, my post - ante bets are currently doing well, so I expect these to make a profit, and therefore the total account to be worth more than these figures suggest.

I've had a profitable record since I began working on this in August, with only a few weeks having shown losses, mostly because I upped my stakes when Man Utd played Southend in the Carling Cup (and lost :-( ). I have thrown back some good bets, mostly because I've decided that I  like to develop a stronger "available to bet balance" (AKA betting 'current account'). I like the option of adding in new bets when good opportunities arise.

I've "thrown back" quite a lot of profitable bets to get back my current account balance, which is a bit foolish from the point of view of the charitable fund, but helped someone out over Xmas! I threw out most of the value on an almost certain winning bet on Reading avoiding relegation just because I had a bit of a "clear-out" on my old bets, and didn't want such a high proportion of fund money residing in the post-ante markets. Must have given someone some small cheer over Xmas! Partly I also do this because in the league post-ante markets I know I'm also playing against other small stakes folk rather than the big fish that occupy the in-running markets. I respect their opinions, and treat it like a game of pool where one's skills are enhanced by just playing the game, and going for the shots rather than just playing to win at all costs.

Most of my bets that are tied up are doing pretty well. Top performer for the fund currently is Christiano Ronaldo who I snapped up for a couple of quid at 170-1. He's been "on fire" recently, scoring a brace in 2 matches over the Xmas period. Mistakenly I laid him once he came in substantially in price, since I was down on the premiership goalscorers winners market, and was glad to be able to cover my expenses, though I still have some substantial "green" on Ronaldo winning.

If I were not currently playing with small stakes I would commit further funds towards him in the winners market for the premiership, and that is my tip for anyone who reads this over Xmas.

The clear facts are these:

Man Utd are winning games convincingly, often scoring three goals in a game. Ronaldo has been scoring frequently.

The current premiership scorers table shows Didier Drogba in front with 13 goals. Second is Ronaldo with 12 goals, just 1 goal behind. Drogba is 2.38 to win in this market, while Ronaldo is still available at 9.6. Chelsea are currently struggling as they are having to do a lot more defending at the moment. Man Utd are scoring freely.

Henry has some catching up to do, and still isn't playing after injury. Schevchenko is now out of the running. Bent is doing some good work with a struggling Charlton team, and I would expect him to improve his totals. Kanu is still hanging in there but is apparently suffering from burn out. Barry is there, but is unlikely to seriously challenge as a midfielder from a mid-table team. The Sheff Utd and Reading strikers are unlikely to last the course. Berbatov has been touted as an outsider by Racing and Football Outlook, but is still looking like a real outsider, and does not yet appear in the top 10. Rooney is still in the frame, but is happy to let his friend Ronaldo get the goals.

I think Ronaldo has a good chance of overtaking Drogba. In spite of a dramatic reduction in Ronaldo's price, I don't think the market has yet adjusted fully. If I were playing with higher stakes and did not have my fund discipline to think about, I would invest more on Ronaldo. So my recommendation is to take Ronaldo at the current price while it is there.

regards,

Fenland T.

p.s., Also pleased to report that the muppets have decided to leave the Valley for destinations unknown. I now feel that backing Watford for Rock Bottom in the premiership is fairly safe, and don't feel the need to hedge Charlton for an overall loss on that market (the largest liability the current fund had in the post-ante markets). I think that Charlton will continue to pull away from Watford. However, I have to sit this one out, and I won't be hedging until Charlton get to around the 10.0 mark.

Good evening,

predicting results in the Championship using stats is a pain. I've lost a fair bit of cash on this league betting on favourites who failed to win. I've been well and truly taken to the cleaners, so credit to the market odds-setters for winning so consistently.

I've been recording data from the matches, and trying to predict the results using, for instance, Rateform ratings, goal supremacy, and form over the previous five games.

Interestingly, none of the predictor variables I've recorded "work" very well in the Championship (they do in the Premiership, but that's another story!). The league is tight, and even teams near the bottom of the league regularly pull  "shock result" rabbits out of the hat. On Friday even lowly Luton were odds-on, or close to, if I recall correctly, to beat Southend, stranded at the bottom of the league, but could they do it, like odds on favourites should really do? Could they ****! Did I have money on the Luton win, yes I did. Madness!

Looking at this weekends results, who would have believed that Cardiff, the early pace setters in the league, could lose heavily at Hull. Well I would actually, now! Nothing surprises me in that league this year.

Not even Betfair odds show large relationships with Home win/ non-Home win outcomes in that league. They do show some significant relationships to Home win/ Away win/ Draw stats (not the same as home win / not home win), but even those relationships are not substantial, and have not helped so far, in making a profit from this league.

To cut to the chase. The Championship market consistently makes teams odds-on favourites when, on the basis of division results, many shouldn't be. Don't back away teams odds-on, even if they are promotion contenders, that is my advice, such as it is. I'll be going for home teams with longish odds from now on, however unlikely they appear in advance to win, as they show a paper profit to date, which is my bottom line.

regards,

FT

p.s.,

Having said all this, there are various teams that are rising to the top now, like a thin layer of cream on low-fat milk that takes a very long time to rise to the top.

For automatic promotion there are two places. The favourites at the beginning of the season were Birmingham and West Brom, and they are still my two favourites. Birmingham have started to win even when they get played off the park, while West Brom seem to be hitting a sweet spot, and sometimes thrashing teams. Of the others, I rate Southampton highly, and I think they should be good for a play off place. So that's them doomed then! In line with the current observations, betting on Southampton away from home across the season would have seen a loss of 13% (Football Anorak stats).

p.p.s., Colchester at home are a good bet so far. Betting on them as home underdogs would have seen a profit of 183% across the season to date (Football Anorak stats).

FT

.

Good evening,

I enjoyed the SPOTY awards live from Birmingham very much, and I thought the BBC put on a magnificent spectacle.

The award caused a fair bit of controversy among some sports fans, since there were some great sportspeople who, if sporting achievement were the sole criteria for winning, would surely have prevailed on the night. However, it is what it is, and I think people should let it be. It is, perhaps, the one time in the year when a lot of people who aren't usually interested in sport focus on it for a while. And that cannot be such a bad thing.

The market was certainly an interesting one to follow, as people tried to judge the relative merits of sporting achievement and, for want of a better word, 'personality', in assessing who would win, and be placed.

Although I had watched the odds on Joe Calzaghe winning drop considerably over the course of a few weeks and months, and with good reason, given his achievements, I came to the final conclusion that he would come second behind Darren Clarke, and backed D.C., at some silly odds on prices. So I admit to being wrong there (Clarke was 2cnd, Calzaghe was 4th), and also to becoming somehow "blind" to the credentials of Zara Clarke as fitting the "ideal profile" of a SPOTY winner. D.C.'s public statements about not wanting to win on a sympathy vote, were possibly decisive, while his new love affair possibly affected his vote also. The running order and edits on the night also must have influenced the final vote. Some of the nominees had barely any airtime at all (Andrew Murray). Still, in my view, it was highly entertaining.

I was green on all nominees, after backing Calzaghe at 50.0, but much less so on Zara Phillips than most of the other nominees. In the end, after all the analysis, and stuff, my fund increased by £15. If D.C. had won it would have been £30, and if Calzaghe had won, £100.

The moral of the tale, which perhaps should be elevated to a SPOTY "law", is: ....

 if there is a member of the Royal family as a nominee for SPOTY, on no account underestimate their chance of winning, especially, and in particular, if they are riding a horse!

That is 2 out of 2 members of the royal family who have won SPOTY on the basis of performances on horseback. To my knowledge, 0 members of the royal family who have been in the running for the award on the back of a decent equestrian performance, have ever lost came worse than 1st!

So if I'm still around when another royal equestrian is in the running, and assuming the Royal Family have not vanished from the UK social map, I'll know what to do!

regards,

FT

p.s., back to football now, and I have a paper tested prediction system for trying to profit from Premiership fixtures which seems to predict about 60% of home wins correctly on the basis of only 2 predictor variables. I intend to share my predictions and am starting to stake on this as of the coming weekend, so assuming I have time for some blogging, I'll share my tips.

Good Streebling,

I guess you might be getting a bit cheesed off with all this SPOTY Joe Calzaghe stuff. Only a few more days to go though, and possibly one more blog on the topic!

Anyway, it's all hotting up now in the SPOTY contest and the SPOTY market, as the field has been narrowed to 10 nominees. There has been a lot of market activity, the most prominent in my opinion being the movement of  Joe Calzaghe in the market.

Since my last blog entry on the subject a the odds on Joe Calzaghe and Phil Taylor the darts champ winning have shortened, Calzaghes substantially (from 30 to a current 8.8), while those on Zara Phillips have lengthened (from 5.0 to 6.8). If the current rate of change is sustained, Joe Calzaghe will overtake Zara Phillips as the 2cnd favourite by the day of the competition (Sunday this week from 7pm until 9pm).

There are probably several reasons why Calzaghes odds are shortening.

Probably most important is the fact that more people have become aware of his magnificent achievements in his career. This is the first time that I can recall when he has received the sheer volume of publicity outside of the boxing constituency.

Also, Calzaghe won the Welsh version of SPOTY earlier this week, beating Nicole Cooke into second place, and that brought him publicity (obviously!) - he apparently managed to smash the trophy and his mother was not best pleased (The Sun). Possibly, if there is such a thing as a Welsh vote, then some Welsh Cooke voters might conceivably decide to go for Calzaghe. Still this is unlikely to account for very much. Someone on Betfair forum has been ramping Andrew Murrays chances, by alluding to a Scottish national vote. It may exist, but given that Murray's odds are still available at around 80 on Betfair, there isn't much evidence of a Scottish block vote in this market.

Calzaghe has also put in some media appearances - apparently he was on daytime TV yesterday or today, on the BBC. Lots of newspapers have been running pieces on him. Even the Guardian, which favours the abolishment of boxing with gloves (and without for that matter), ran an article in it's sport section today on "the real sports personality of the year".

In the punters press, William Hills report having received many £10 and £20 pound bets, which they consider is more of an indication of a groundswell of support than a smaller number of large bets.

There has also been a poll on Yahoo which on a small and self-selected sample has Clarke just ahead of Calzaghe. Whether this poll is genuine or a sophisticated ramping strategy is unclear, but it if is to be believed, then Clarke and Calzaghe are clear front runners, with Clarke only a short head in front.

On the Betfair forum there has been plenty of analysis, as well as the usual ramping. One bloke banged on about how Clarke was "nailed on to win, bang out of order considering Clarke's bereavement. It's not supposed to be a crucifixion! Though there is something about Clarkes predicament here which brings biblical analogies to mind - but that's enough about that.

Perhaps most interestingly  the BBC website is emphasising Darren Clarkes statement that he does not want to win on a sympathy vote, though the BBC fall short, presumably for reasons of impartiality, of reporting another of Clarke's statements to the effect that he believes Calzaghe should win on merit.

So all in all, the market momentum is clearly with Calzaghe, and his odds should continue to come down at least until the contest goes in running on the night. Analysis of the market trends via analysis of the Betfair odds and volumes graphs shows a slight slowing of the rate at which Calzaghe is coming in. Take a look on the Betfair SPOTY winner odds screen and you'll see what I mean. If I had higher stakes to play with, I would have put more on. However, I have managed to get admittedly small amounds of money on at 50.0, 30.0, 16.0, and today a further couple of quid at 8.6. These odds cried out to be taken, even at this stage, given that the market indicators have been continuing to go Calzaghe's way.

I think he could come in a bit further yet. On Saturday night ITV1 has a fight night with Amir Khan fighting for his first title and Danny Williams and Audrey Harrison going toe-to-toe again. Scott Harrison has pulled out of his title fight as he hasn't made the weight, which means they may have a bit more time to spend talking, if he is in attendance, and/or profiling their main man, who is....... Joe Calzaghe. ITV will of course be aware that it is SPOTY the next day, and this may even be discussed. I have a sense that the BBC is doing it's best to give the public a chance not to vote for Darren Clarke, given the predicament, and I could envisage ITV sport backing this up with some Calzaghe coverage. It is also very possible that the News of the World will back Calzaghe, given that they sponsor the ITV boxing coverage (with the corny phrase "sponsored by the news of the world - big on boxing".

Having said all this, if someone gets badly hurt on Saturday night, then this would have a profound effect on the market going into the day of the award.

So it is all nicely set up for Sunday. Will there be a collective outpouring of national grief and sentiment for Clarke resulting in him receiving the award, or will people lay off voting for him given his painful personal bereavement, with the result that another nominee wins the award. You'd really need a crystal ball to sort that one out! The BBC editorial team can quite likely have a large influence on the outcome according to their edits and running orders on the night. I think Andrew Murray and Zara Phillips also have a chance of winning, and it is rumoured that Beth Tweddle will be doing some her gymnastics routine live on the night.

Unfortunately, given the aim of this fund, which is to reach a level where I can donate to charity from any winnings, I guess I will have to do the responsible thing and "green out", at least partially, before the contest goes in running on the night. Calzaghe is still an outsider to win, and I have to bear this in mind. I could make £30 quid which advances the fund a little, but it could grow by £350 if I kept everything on Calzaghe. I think that I'll hedge to get at least £20 whatever the outcome, and keep a potential £100 win riding on Calzaghe who has just got to be a good value given all the pointers. Which is probably more than you wanted to know! What would you do!?

all the best,

FT

Hi all,

just a quick post to remind people that the SPOTY shortlist is revealed today. Should be interesting.

My initial thoughts are that each of the 10 nominees (for there are 10 of them) should come down in pricea bit. But having said that the market is behaving a little strangely at the moment. There is a lot of jockeying for position and Darren Clarke's odds are the pivot. People who have strong portfolios on some of the outsiders seem to be buying into Darren Clarke's odds so that they can equalise their profits, which is making him an even stronger favourite than he was a week ago.

Amazing really, that having announced last week that he wouldn't feel happy receiving the award, and suggested Calzaghe should get the award, his odds promptly came down from about 1.6 to 1.4.

I can't call this one.

Will the sentimentalism of the UK public force D.C, who in his own words is uncomfortable about receiving the award to do so. Maybe. Or equally likely, one of the outsiders may win the vote on the day, in which case it could be one of several nominees, with Joe Calzaghe, Andrew Murray, and Beth Tweddle being my dark horses (an OK, Zara the equestrian). Maybe even David will be in the list of 10, scuppering the Sun's 'leak' of the 10 nominees. It really has turned into a reality TV market, and as such, anything goes. I suspect much will depend on the BBC edited clips on the night of the 10th. Interestingly, the BBC clips so far feature D.C. at the end of their sequence. This may point to a D.C. win, or maybe not. I wish someone from the beeb would tell me, as my charity fund needs a boost!

all the best,

FT

p.s., Jenson Button is a darker than dark horse currently at 1000 to 1, but included in the BBC preview clips. I very much doubt he will win, but maybe a place. He did win a grand prix this year and also appeared on Top Gear and talked about his sex life (he assured J. Clarkson that JB gets more of it (sex that is) than JC. Not enough to win the award, but maybe enough for a place.

Hi all,

I have an interest in the "rock bottom" market. At the beginning of the season, it seemed a reasonably safe bet that either Watford or Sheffield would finish rock bottom, and until the last month this had been working out. Surely Charlton's early season form must surely have been just a 'blip'. On paper Charlton's squad looks much stronger than Watford's and the Blades.

However, the market has now changed as as reports have raised the prospect that the Valley is becoming a Muppet santuary. Reports are unclear about how many of them there are among the board, or among the managerial or playing staff. These creatures, loveable as they are, are not known for their managerial acumen, their marksmanship, their fighting spirit, or their ability to defend a 1 goal lead.

Saturday against Sheffield was a crucial game for Charlton.  I could not believe my eyes when I looked at the BBC stats in-play on Saturday afternoon. I thought it was a mistake, a typo.... I couldn't believe it was true. Sheffield were showing attacking stats usually only obtained by Man Utd, Arsenal, and (on occasion), Liverpool and Chelsea. It finished with Sheffield having 10 shots on target, 16 shots off target, compared with 4 on target and 4 off target for Charlton.

This does not bode well for Charlton, who are now second favourites for the wooden spoon. It is, however, very encouraging for Sheffield. At least two things can be taken from the stats from Saturday's game.

a) Charlton are currently a poor team, and their recent managerial change has not helped. I thought Dowie seemed to be a promising, if slighly frightening, young(ish) prem manager.  Perhaps the Charlton board should fire their latest manager and bring in Miss Piggy. David O Leary is stll out of a job at the moment ;-)

On paper Charlton have a squad good enough to avoid the wooden spoon, including some international level players. But they are cocking it up big time. Their next game against Blackburn at home is a "must win", according to the Charlton manager (Reid?), but on current form, Blackburn should start marginal favourites, and "must win" games have a habit of turning into morale sapping defeats.

It underlines what a shrewd manager Curbishley was for Charlton in getting his players to perform at a level to keep Charlton in the top division year after year. Curbishley appeared to me to exude a quiet menace in tv interviews,a man not to be crossed.
 
Maybe Reid should post up the poem 'IF' in the dressing room (). It seems to have helped Luton this weekend! Or he could get the team to watch a Muppet Xmas special.

b) Sheffield are better than they have been given credit for. There were signs of this in their games against big four opposition, notably against Liverpool early in the season, and again against Man Utd, where they only lost narrowly. I haven't seen many of their games on tv, but these results, in which they avoided being overwhelmed, may turn out to be good reference points.

Neil Warnock seems to be enjoying his time in the Premiership spotlight. It is well deserved. He is every inch a shrewd premiership level manager. He has been underrated in his career. Punches pound-for-pound like more like an O'Neil than an O'Leary.  His post-match interviews are the proverbial "breath of fresh air", and he seems perfectly in his element in the premiership environment. He done a fantastic job for the Blades and the supporters love him for it. Pity he has said he will retire.


In my assessment, Charlton look like they will be relegated and will contend with Watford for the wooden spoon. Sheffield appear to have a fighting chance of escaping - so the teams around them will have to keep on their toes!

all the best,

FT

Greetings all,

there is another big night of footie later today.

In particular,

Man Utd home to Everton, and odds-on favourites to win (1.32 Man Utd win, 14 Everton win, 5.6 the draw).

Bolton home to Chelsea, with Chelsea odds on favourites to win (1.67 Chelsea win, 6.6 Bolton win, 3.95 the draw).

Again, if there is a slip up by one of the two front runners, there should be some significant market action, since there is a possibility that Chelsea could pull level, or Man Utd go 4 or six points clear, rather than the current differential be maintained. The weight of shrewdie opinion on punters lounge favours Man Utd and Chelsea for sure, but both opposing teams are capable of upsetting the applecart on their day. Bolton turned over Arsenal at home at the weekend, but their defence has been ravaged by injuries, so it will need a backs to the wall and opportunistic performance to keep Chelsea from winning. I think the odds are a bit wrong here, and that Chelsea should be more like 2.0 than 1.67, so there is possible value on Bolton.  Man Utd should also win, especially as Everton also have significant injuries with Johnson and Cahill both out the last time I checked. Still, I don't care to risk my stake on either of the Man Utd or Chelsea win odds.

I'll be following the post - ante market rather than the in-play market, as I have an interest in Man Utd winning the title that I may have to adjust pretty sharpish if one of the underdogs springs a surprise.

all the best,

FT

Hi,

just a quick update on Sports Personality of the year. This is in my view a bit of a tragic SPOTY.  Less a celebration of sporting achievement than an outpouring of public sympathy for Darren Clarke. This years SPOTY has had some interesting twists and turns, but is becoming quite hard to follow.

As you may or may not know, Darren Clarke is strong odds on favourite for the award this year (as I write 1.5).

Today he has expressed some thoughts about being favoured for the award. See article entitle "Clarke unease over sympathy vote".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/golf/6100420.stm

This has strong market implications, and as a consequence, there has been a bit of a run on a couple of other candidates, namely Joe Calzaghe, and Andrew Murray. Interestingly the other previously favoured candidates have not come in significantly (e.g., Ms Phillips the equestrian, or Mr Monty the cricketer or Mr Walliams, the comedian and amateur swimmer who raised loads of cash for charity).

My reading of this is that there is a strong chance that this is now a four or five horse race.

I don't think news of this has really permeated the markets fully yet, since Darren Clarke has only drifted very slightly in the market. In another article the Times newspaper apparently had an article focussing on DC (no dis to that other great sportsperson David Coulthard), which reiterated his discomfort regarding his position as favourite, and suggested that SPOTY go to a champion, namely Joe Calzaghe. I haven't read this so cannot vouch for whether the article exists or not, or whether it is just the product of some Betfair "sledging/ramping" or whatever it is called.

There has also been a recent article on the Sun newspaper website which supposedly leaks the top 10 nominees (i.e., those that have a chance of winning the award). The article suggests that  David Walliams is not on the shortlist, and that no footballer is either. If true, I think this is a real shame, since Walliams effort raised so much for charity, but apparently he is not considered a true sportsperson by the various sports editors who compiled the list. I suspect he will get some special award on the night. Neither was there mention of Jane Tomlinson, who has battled against a serious illness and inspirationally engaged in superb feats of endurance.

My own opinion, is that the field is narrowing to four candidates.

Darren Clarke, Joe Calzaghe, Andrew Murray, and Zara Phillips, with the possibility of Monty Panesar coming up on the rails if he captures a few wickets in the next test. Beth Tweddle may also come in with a late run, as I know she appeals to a lot of younger female athletes.

Of these, I would suggest that Darren Clarke is possibly overestimated as favourite, especially given his ambivalence about receiving the award. Zara Phillips, is probably also overestimated, though historical factors may come into play, and there is a certain symmetry about her receiving an award that her mother attained back in the day. Also, Gary Linecker would probably prefer to be interviewing her rather than Calzaghe or Murray! On sporting prowess, I would suggest that Murray and Calzaghe are the prime contenders. Murray, the excellent up and coming tennis player, one of only two players to beat the world's best Federer, is likely to receive the Scottish vote, which is not to be underestimated, as followers of the X-factor market will testify (those dancing and singing brothers have sure displayed great stickability).

Then there is Joe Calzaghe, who if sporting prowess were to be the sole criteria would surely be the favourite. I have talked about him before in early posts so won't bore you further with the details of his accomplishments. On news of the Darren Clarke interviews, Calzaghe has come in from 80 or 90 to 30 decimal odds. Even 30 seems too high to me.

He and Murray are the market steamers currently. What is strange is that there has been no significant slippage in Darren Clarke's odds. This may be the market being slow to react, or maybe the British public are going to foist the award upon him regardless.

As a fellow human being who has suffered close bereavements of my own. I would hope for him that he is left to his own devices and is able to regroup his life on  his own terms, and without the weight of the media intrusion. And then that he can regroup, rebound, win one of the really big titles, and be lauded on merit, rather than sympathy.

While it is admirable that he is receiving support from the British public, he should be allowed to "retire not out", and regroup at his own pace. Hopefully this can be arranged in a dignified way by the beeb, should this be his preference. A further negative aspect is that the remaining candidates, if they win, may feel that it was by default, in spite of their own achievements.

I would like to say sorry for the downbeat nature of this post.. I just had to get it off my chest, given my own experience of bereavements.

regards,

FT 

p.s., to declare my interests, My bank will grow a little if any of the candidates win (£10 if DC wins, more so if any of the other candidates win, especially Calzaghe or Murray (though if they do come down in price sufficiently I would trade out of those positions to  try and boost the total winnings to £20 - wow!). However, my noting of them as steamers is currently correct, and there is no intention of "ramping" here. If that were the intent I'd post on the Betfair forums where such practices occur every day, and which are presumably read by thousands of people.  To be honest, I feel  a bit ambivalent about being in this market at all now!

Evening all,

like many others, I was following the Man Utd/Chelsea fixture, and observed the odds changing on the post-ante markets today. When Man Utd took the lead in the game, they temporarily became marginal favourites, as I had expected they would if they got into a winning position against the titleholders. Very briefly, Man Utd went to 1.99 while Chelsea when out to 2 while Man Utd were winning 1-0. Current odds reflect pretty much the status quo before the game - i.e., Chelsea about 1.7, Man Utd about 2.7.

I did not take the opportunity to "go green" on the market in play. I expected Man Utd to go on to see out the game from a leading position, so expected a more favourable trading opportunity after the game finished. In the case of this particular market, there is all still to play for,and that may or may not prove to have been the best course of action.

Chelsea are away to Bolton midweek, and there is a significant chance that they will fail to pick up all three points. Man Utd have, on paper, an easier game at Old Trafford where they "entertain" Everton. The scenario still remains of an increased Man Utd lead going into December. I still believe that the value here is on Man Utd, and not Chelsea. Foremost in my mind is that Man Utd still have a 3 point lead and a far superior goal difference, and a superior PPG (points per game) average in the past year. In my view, much depends on the results in the next month. If Manchester get through December with their lead intact, then the transfer window will afford them the opportunity to strengthen the squad.

The issue of market exit points illustrated by these events and this market,  is currently exercising my mind at the moment. Each "investor"  has their own cost-benefit criteria regarding market exit points, which if my own experience is anything to go by, is informed by how much he or she stands to win or lose by staying in, or exiting the market. I have a lot to say on this, and will post my thoughts in due course. I believe these decisions should be data driven, rather than emotional responses based on fear (of losing money), or "greed". The market does not care one bit about you, but trading/gambling can be an uncomfortable or an exhilerating experience which can lead to poor cost-benefit decisions, leading to sub-optimal (bad!), not to say irrational, market entry and exit points. I know that my own trading has been informed by emotional factors at times, when for certain, a completely rational approach would have proved more successful.

I will post more thoughts on this issue when I have formulated my thoughts further.

all  the best,

FT

Hi,

tonight I'd like to emphasise the importance of reliable equipment and connectivity when playing in running. My connectivity is rubbish, and have learnt a lesson worth sharing.

I have a BT wireless Home Hub, and a wireless card in a pc situated in a different room in the house. The connection I have is regularly dropped, often 3 or 4 times in the course of a football match. Tonight I lost out because of it.

I was on the Newcastle v Celta Viga game, and was a couple of quid up when I decided to lay the draw when Newcastle got a corner, and were looking (vaguely) threatening. This is a tactic that can be worthwhile. It has got me into the green more than once in 50 or so plays.

I placed my bet laying the draw for £5 with a liability of £1.35! Much to my pleasure, Newcastle scored from the corner, and I assumed I had won a crisp "electronic fiver", but then I noticed my connection had gone down (for the 3rd time in the game). Unable to restore the connection I rebooted the computer, though by this time there was only 4 minutes left in the game. When the computer rebooted, the connection was restored, and I logged into Betfair (by this time it was injury time), to find that my bet had not been placed - the connection must have gone down before I placed the bet! As I'm only playing with small stakes it was not a disaster, but if I'd been playing for more I would have been very annoyed rather than just slightly peeved.

However, I've learnt my lesson. The wireless card in my computer, which seems to be the prime culprit, is going to be replaced with a long ethernet cable direct into the hub. Wireless, at least in my place, is not reliable.

I'm not totally convinced with ADSL either, but must give it the benefit of the doubt when there are other more likely suspects.

All the best,

FT

Hello and good evening / morning / afternoon,

Sometimes it is possible to recoup the situation when things are not going to plan, without having to resort to Martindale type tactics, by juggling your in-play liabilities, and paying very close attention to the game, and trading accordingly. When this happens, I think there is value in "going red" across the board (to minimise losses so far accumulated in play), and then taking up a new trading position, and relying mostly on "keeping your eye on the ball", during in play, and acting accordingly.

tonight's trading was frenetic.... The gory details are posted at the bottom of this post, but are not recommended viewing. They reveal a number of blind alleys, also, a reluctance to accept defeat. Being able to minimise, or even sometimes turn around losses is, I think, an important advantage of  in-play betting, as compared to traditional fixed-odds betting.

This is easier to achieve when you can actually watch the game (without Sky TV, something I can currently only do in about 20% of my plays). I find I can't get the same results from just following radio commentary and web-site stats. The visibility of the event is important - without it I find it more difficult to change positions in play on football matches.

I was trading on the Celtic v Man Utd game, and initially backed Man Utd to win.

This was all looking well for the first 30 minutes or so, but the odds on the draw were steadily creeping down, and it was starting to look like a loss for the evening. However, I managed to turn it round in play to come out with a winning position.

Total profit and loss for last 3 months

Boxing: -GBP10.60 | Horse Racing: GBP7.74 | Motor Sport: -GBP30.00 | Snooker: GBP2.28 | Soccer: GBP142.65 | Tennis: -GBP2.65 Total P&L: GBP109.42

I guess I was somewhat fortunate to have turned this trade around. The second half became something of a blur, interrupted by not 1 but 2 dropped wireless connections that required disabling and then re-enabling a driver. In each case that was 3 minutes off line in which anything could have happened, and my stake was completely vulnerable - not good. I must invest in a very long ethernet cable, and sort out the DIY cabling.

With regard to the strategy to "claw back" the stake, I was aware that I needed primarily to cover the draw, so the general strategy was to (painfully, and at ever decreasing odds) buy into the draw, which meant going into the red on all three positions, but trying to weight the losses according to current expectations of what the result would be. However, the win, such as it was, was achieved by laying the draw when either team was in high penetration positions on the field. All of this was done within a window of maximum liability that extended to a maximum loss at one point of £15. This was more than I would have cared to lose, but I was careful not to exceed that limit. Luckily, there was a goal scored during a period when the draw had been laid (about 3-5 seconds previously), and from then on it was easy to "go green" on each of the three match outcomes.

After the goal was scored, and with Celtic then 1-0 up, I laid Celtic, whose price obviously came in dramatically, to obtain an "all green" position. At this point this would have meant about +£4 for a Celtic win, +£6 for the draw, and +£25 for the Man Utd win. Once "in the green", then it all becomes easy, in contrast to the sinking feeling that comes from trying to minimise one's losses. In the event I only came out with the £2 quid or so win, as I thought a draw was likely, and laid Celtic further, which would have meant at least £6 if Man Utd equalised (and they nearly did with the penalty miss).

I missed "a sitter", when the Man Utd penalty came. For at least 30 seconds or so, there was doubt as to whether the stoppage would lead to a penalty. When the commentator suggested that a penalty would be awarded to Man Utd, there was still a 10 second or so gap before the market was suspended. I could have kicked myself about that, as I failed to capitalise by backing the draw at odds of 5.0. In the event the penalty was missed by Saha, so it turned out ok, from the point of view of the trading outcome, but given that more penalties are scored than missed, that was a definate "missed sitter" from a trading point of view.

The frenetic in-play strategy with frequent changing of positions is a strategy I've used to good effect before, but without Sky TV, as mentioned earlier, it is something I'm restricted to using only in a minority of games with terrestrial TV coverage. I am still, however, reluctant to get in Sky Sports, and this would ramp up the trading/gambling, which is something I'm not sure about. Also, the delay in receipt of transmissions puts me off a bit.

I've posted the full, unexpedited log of the evening's activities! Not pleasant viewing, and full of speculative cock-ups, and desperate ploys!

all the best, and good luck..

FT

p.s., I'd appreciate knowing whether anyone reads my posts, so if you do, then by all means feel free to make a comment.

The too much detail section

The following represents only a portion of the game, as there were many other bets, but it gives a flavour of the high level of activity involved in me trying to not lose on the game. I've just noticed it doesn't come out on the page, so sorry about that.. though you really don't need to see it anyway. Well, if you really want to then a right click and "view source" will reveal it.

2006-11-21 21:36 2735760491 2006-11-21 21:33 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds Comm Charged 5.02% On Net winnings of GBP2.39 - - - (0.12)   484.29 2006-11-21 21:36 2735726796 2006-11-21 21:22 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Lay 15.00 1.42 Won   15.00 484.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735725462 2006-11-21 21:22 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 1.39 Lost (3.00)   469.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735705133 2006-11-21 21:15 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 1.61 Lost (3.00)   472.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735675587 2006-11-21 21:07 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 2.00 1.85 Lost (2.00)   475.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735672289 2006-11-21 21:05 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 1.94 Lost (3.00)   477.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735579249 2006-11-21 20:34 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 2.00 2.42 Lost (2.00)   480.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735576001 2006-11-21 20:33 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 2.40 Lost (3.00)   482.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735555698 2006-11-21 20:27 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 2.64 Lost (3.00)   485.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735425662 2006-11-21 19:47 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Lay 5.00 3.20 Won   5.00 488.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735760491 2006-11-21 21:33 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Celtic Lay 4.00 1.07 Lost (0.28)   483.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735742495 2006-11-21 21:27 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Celtic Lay 5.00 1.21 Lost (1.05)   483.69 2006-11-21 21:36 2735732042 2006-11-21 21:25 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Celtic Lay 12.00 1.24 Lost (2.88)   484.74 2006-11-21 21:36 2735666508 2006-11-21 21:03 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Celtic Back 3.00 6.20 Won   15.60 487.62 2006-11-21 21:36 2735715554 2006-11-21 21:19 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Lay 3.00 4.30 Won   3.00 472.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735714593 2006-11-21 21:18 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Back 3.00 4.00 Lost (3.00)   469.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735710590 2006-11-21 21:17 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Lay 3.00 4.10 Won   3.00 472.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735707204 2006-11-21 21:16 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Back 5.00 3.80 Lost (5.00)   469.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735686758 2006-11-21 21:10 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Lay 2.00 3.50 Won   2.00 474.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735683500 2006-11-21 21:09 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Lay 2.00 3.40 Won   2.00 472.02

Page: 1  2  3  4  5  6  7   of 7 Pages Jump to page:    All times are  UKT   ?   unless otherwise stated.

All times are  UKT   ?   unless otherwise stated.

Hello and..,

a very interesting fixture next weekend for those interested in the post-ante market for the Premiership title.

Manchester United v Chelsea  ... domestic games don't come much bigger than that these days.

The market has Chelsea as favourites for the title, even though they are 3 points behind Man Utd, and Man Utd have a far superior goal difference.

The current odds are

Chelsea to win title :  1.73

Man Utd to win title: 2.84

What I would like to highlight here is the potential for a large market swing next Saturday, if Man Utd win the fixture. If that happens then Chelsea would be 6 points behind Man Utd (effectively 7 because of the far superior goal differences of Manchester). Surely then the market would see a large swing in favour of Man Utd. This is interesting, because to date, the superior record of Man Utd has not impacted the market odds as much as might have been expected given the performance of the two teams to date. This is in spite of publications such as "Racing and Football Outlook" predicting Man Utd to win the title this year (RAFO's predictions suggest a 7 point margin).

In Chelsea's favour, they have superior squad depth. In Man Utd's favour is a better points per game record over the course of the last year, and a clearly superior goal difference. So far, they have been the best team in the division this season.

Arguably, the destination of the title will depend on whether Man Utd keep the spine of their team injury free. This is a gamble when betting on them, though Alex Ferguson, wily old fox that he is, will no doubt strengthen his side when the transfer window reopens. Rumour has it that he will sign D. Bent from Charlton, among others.

My own view is that if United remain relatively free from injuries, they will win the title. For all Chelsea's strengths, they don't have the players that can take a good team apart like Man Utd can (e.g., recent Bolton result). The two RR's with a G and and two S's (Rooney, Ronaldo, Giggs, Scholes, and Saha), with able support, have been on fire so far.

Regardless of who ultimately wins the title, the Man U v Chelsea fixture appears to have massive significance for the market, which has some very "entrenched" positions at the moment. Prior to the season start, Chelsea were massive odds-on favourites - "safe as 'ouses', and I suspect a lot of folk have viewed a successful Chelsea defence as a formality, and a safe investment. It has been interesting to see from the last couple of weeks that to some degree, people have seen the Chelsea "blip" more as an opportunity to buy odds on them winning than as an indicator of the unthinkable - that perhaps they aren't going to win after all. After Chelsea lost to Spurs, Chelsea's odds initially lengthened, but then consolidated, indicating that some people were seeing the Chelsea loss as an strong entry point in the market to back Chelsea.

All of which adds to the spice of next weekend's fixture. If Man Utd win, then surely with a 6 point lead, plus superior goal difference, a massive market swing would happen, and  Man Utd would installed as new favourites for the title!?? Or would the market still insist that Chelsea were safe as 'ouses'? It is not currently clear how far Man Utd would have to be in the race to be installed as favourites, but my intuition is that if they beat Chelsea on Saturday there will be a dramatic swing, since I think many more people would enter the market seeing value in Man Utd.

I believe there is a realistic chance of the Chelsea ballon being punctured big stylee next weekend. Incodentally, Man Utd will likely start as favourites for the fixture at Old Trafford next weekend, unless they have bad injuries or suspensions from the midweek Champions league tie at Parkhead. For some people this may represent an opportunity to cross-reference two different markets.

I will be there with my mouse ready to strike, should Man Utd take a decisive lead in the weekend's game. So, no doubt, will hundreds or thousands or others!

FT

p.s., I've got a small stake on Man Utd here, though I've tried to present an objective assessment of things as I currently see them.

Hello and welcome,

After last weeks losses, compounded by ignoring my own staking rules, it has, I confess, been difficult to get back in the saddle.

Over the weekend, I missed some good opportunities through reticence.... I guess things go this way when betting confidence diminishes, for whatever reason. In the positive side, I guess it means that you don't lose more, but on the negative side, opportunities can pass you by. And I missed some very good value this weekend!

Case 1: I heard on Five Live on Saturday morning of a pivotal horse race in which the favourite, Detroit City was expected to win. If the horse did win, then his/her odds on the Champion Hurdle would steam (go down), affording an opportunity to profit in the market. So I tuned in to the radio commentary of the race, and simultaneously set up a bet on the Champion Hurdle post ante market. In running, Detroit City took a clear and ultimately decisive lead, but unfortunately I acted to late. I was too concerned about the horse winning, in spite of the fact that a place would probably have been enough to shorten the odds for the Champion Hurdle. By the time I went to place my bet, seconds after Detroit City came home in first place, everything from 10 thru 6 to 1 had been taken! Missed opportunity there. Get on early, or miss the boat! In hindsight though, I think that qualifies as a valuable learning experience.

Case 2: The Reading v Spurs game. The pre-match odds made Spurs favourites, and when they took the lead, Reading were available to back at 15.0. This looked extremely good value to me, given Reading's excellent start to the season, tempered by playing several top teams in the last few games, and Spurs poor start to the season. I set-up a £2 bet for Reading, but delayed because the confidence had gone out of my betting. Instead I wimped out and went to check the tables in the "Definitive guide to the betting exchanges" section on in-running football betting. By the time, I'd convinced myself that the 15.0 was indeed very good value at that early stage of the game, and was about to place my bet, the "suspended" graphic comes up. Reading had scored! I intrinsically knew those odds were a bargain, but was reluctant to get on because of the previous weeks experience. Another missed opportunity, but a good learning experience. I did, however later lay Reading in the premiership relegation market. They are a solid mid-table team, not relegation candidates. The match of the day highlights highlighted their attacking prowess, and I am confident that this bet will succeed. What's more, the shrewdie bloke in the pub who spends hours looking at league tables, agrees! I think laying Reading at 7.0 or thereabouts is still a sound bet.

Case 3: The Arsenal v Liverpool game. I fancied over 2.5 goals here, and backed +2.5 just after half-time. Because of last weeks indisciple, I forced myself to lay 2.5 if the odds went out to the extent that I could retrieve 30% of my stake. Annoyingly, when the ref got injured, and play was delayed, of course the odds on the 2.5 continued to lengthen. By the time the ref was back on his feet, it was time for me to exit the market. 1 minute after settling for a loss on the game, Arsenal scored their third goal! Grrrr!

I guess the moral of the tale is that the market cares not for whether you won or lost last week. It is important to try and retain as objective a view as possible of the market terrain, and not let winning or losing cloud your judgement. On a winning streak, I would have had no hesitation in my staking on these three outcomes, but because I was on a losing streak, it made a difference to my edge - a negative one. Getting out of the over 2.5 market was probably sensible, but the other 2 were definately missed opportunities where I did not take value when it was there to be had.

regards, and good luck in retaining your own objectivity!

FT