2006-Nov-11 - Week 1 Footy Picks

Well here goes, week 1 footy picks from the Blackbox!

Blackburn v Man United

Blackburn +.5 AH @ 2.53 £55

Blackburn might not have the quality squad which United clearly have, but they are a gritty side and tough to beat at home.  That said, United got humbled in the week and so expect them to come back full force.  Given these factors, I've only got 55 quid on this one, despite blackbox suggesting there is value in the bet.

Everton v Aston Villa

Everton -.5 AH @ 2.18 £120

Villa are playing well under O'Neil, but to beat Everton away is asking too much.  Villa need a proven goalscorer in the transfer window if they are to win games like this.  Blackbox likes this trade, hence the £120 quid on this one.

Middlesboro v West Ham

Boro -.5 AH @ 2.39 £120

Boro are completely unpredictable, and withoug a fully fit Viduka not likely to fire on all cylinders.  That said, the hammers have a long journey to boro and will struggle to get a result unless boro are at their worst - which lets face it is quite possible!  Still that's why blackbox likes this one and hance the £120 quid again.

Portsmouth v Fulham

Pompey -.5 AH @ 1.94 £125

It's a tough ground to visit and Fulham are rubbish!  Campbell and James back and Kanu too.  Value according to blackbox so I'm not going to argue!

Wigan v Charlton

Wigan -.5 AH @ 1.98 £100

Wigan are an underrated side, not surprising given that noone has ever heard of any of their players.  They play as a team though!  Charlton are all over the place, recent cup results have flattered them a litle and taken the pressure off a rubbish manager.  Not the same side without Curbishley.  Value according to blackbox so the usual 100 quid on this game.

Blackbox

2006-Nov-10 - Welcome to BlackBox Trading

BlackBox is a statistics based pricing algorithm designed to identify fair value in match and asian hadicap bets.
I will be sharing my adventures as a novice football bettor and trading system designer as we go along. I'll also be sharing the recommendations and results of the trading system as we go along too, so if you follow some of the recommendations, then it's entirely at your own risk! I'd recommend not betting with any money the wife can't afford to lose!

I read in the New Scientist recently that success is down to 1% natural ability, 29% good coaching and the rest just plain hard work! Well, I'm not sure that I have the 1% natural ability yet, but I do propose to do a lot of hard work! The 29% bit is where you come in - I hope that you'll provide some good feedback and quality coaching on my adventures as we go along!
Hope you enjoy this blog, feel free to contact me with questions, advice, coaching, general rantings etc. But bear with me, I'm a newbie so if something is really wrong or just plain stupid, please let me know.
Wish me luck! I'd rather be lucky than good, and much rather be both! Only time will tell!!!

BlackBox