|
|
2007-Jun-2
Saturdays Racing
Going for the big swoop tomorrow as there's plenty of horses which are running from my shortlist. Some nice big prices, some are alright.
2:00 Epsom - Regal Flush
Ran a quick time when second behind Petara Bay in a handicap at Newmarket off an 8lb lower mark, and the time of that race was of listed class. Had trouble in running last time out at Newbury. Kerrin McEvoy retains the ride and Sir Michael Stoute has his string running well, so his 20% strike rate round here bodes well. Looks good value in an open race at 6/1.
2:20 Musselburgh - Raccoon
The weather is scheduled to be sunny tomorrow morning, so hopefully the ground will continue to dry out. Has improved a great deal since being tubed and forget his last run as he didn't get the run of things, and the time before that was over 6f on ground worse than ideal. I expect better things tomorrow and at the forecasted 8/1 is a knocking bet.
3:00 Epsom - Blythe Knight NAP
Ran a Group 2 time when winning a Listed Handicap at York last time and will have no problems repeating the dose in Group 3 Company here. He certainly handles the course and really seems to have improved over the last year or so. Forecasted at 5/1 which I think is a brilliant price, and most people will be lumping blindly on the favourite. John Quinn has a 20% record at Epsom and this small field should pose no problems for his stable star.
4:20 Epsom - Admiralofthefleet EW
Have backed this antepost at 330/1 on Betfair, and was impressed by the way he dealt with his opposition when winning the Dee Stakes. The ground seemed to be drying up today which will play into the hands of this horse. I have also had small wagers on Eagle Mountain (20/1) and Soldier Of Fortune (42/1)., but the ground could do with being softer for Eagle Mountain. I shall be place laying Authorized, whom despite putting up a 'visually' impressive performance in the Dante but it wasn't that impressive on my stopwatch.
4:50 Folkestone - Kings Bastion NB
Ran a good race behind Sandrey over 6f at Lingfield, was outpaced but kept on well in the final couple of furlongs. Found 5f too sharp last time out but was still raised 1lb for that effort. The form of his run behind Sakhee's Secret is very strong however, and the return to 7f on ground he'll prefer looks a great price at 8/1. Michael Bell has a decent record here and Hayley Turner rides well.
5:05 Epsom - Adopted Hero EW
Interesting runner from Gary Moore's stable. Has been dropping down the weights since running poorly in Nad Al Sheba in 2005, and has been hurdling ever since. Gary Moore has a 14% record at Epsom, and Adopted Hero is 2 from 4 over 12f, and is 2/2 on Good-To-Soft. Dropped 3lb for a bad run on Heavy ground last year and Jack Mitchell takes off a valuable 7lbs. It wouldn't be the biggest suprise to see him running a big race at huge odds of 20/1.
Come and discuss with our experts
2007-Apr-24
Come and visit us!!
2000 Guineas Preview
1000 Guineas Preview
Come and checkout our Big Race Previews!!
2007-Feb-23
Saturdays Racing Tips
 2:30 Lingfield – Bomber Command NB
Has been a horse I’ve had noted down for a while to keep on the right side of. Smashed the track record at Kempton in November and has run really well since. Doesn’t quite get a mile so this drop back down to 7f will definitely help his cause, and that said should find it within his compass to reverse the placing with Orchard Supreme. Wavetree Warrior is interesting but I feel this 7f round here will be a little too sharp for him, and he’s passed up once more but could well sneak into a place. I have to side with Bomber Command though who gets his optimum trip here tomorrow and Patrick Hills takes off a valuable 7lbs and gets on better than anyone on the horse.
3:05 Lingfield – Woodnook EW
Is capable of throwing in the odd Group Class time, and threw one of those in when beaten in a photo finish by Maltese Falcon in December. Has run with credit since and won nicely last time out. I cant see her beating Areyoutalkingtome but he’s very short and there’s three places to fill. At the price this is (16/1) I cannot rule out a decent sized EW bet on her, as she isn’t without a chance.
3:10 Kempton – Limerick Boy
Obviously Lucifer Beau is going to be a tough sort to beat being so well handicapped, but the selection has gradually started to put it together over fences and is a well regarded horse under the care of Venetia Williams who’s having a fantastic season. The softer the ground the better is what I believe suits Limerick Boy, and he’ll get genuine soft ground at Kempton tomorrow. Upped just 1lb for his 16 length romp at Haydock last time out looks more than fair and he should get competitive in this race off that mark. Limerick Boy should have no problems in staying three miles now as he still had plenty in the tank in Heavy Ground at Haydock last time up, and he looks a value alternative in a trappy looking renewal. Small stakes only!
4:15 Kempton – Limited Edition NAP
After a baffling comeback when pulling up Newbury, he made an emphatic comeback and won very well by 8 lengths, smashing the clock in the process. On that running he could prove to be a very smart recruit to the larger obstacles, and gets into this handicap off a mark of 122. The time of his last run was on the borderline of pattern class from what I clocked. This looks like a stepping stone to Cheltenham and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to line up in the Jewson with a real good chance. Even so this looks an absolute shoe in tomorrow, and I’ll be raiding the piggy bank to get on.
5:15 Kempton – Murphy EW
Was well fancied by the yard when making his debut in desperate conditions at Uttoxeter, but wasn’t given a hard time of things and was looked after by Robert Lucy-Butler for another day. This ground will be more suitable to this horse whose well regarded at home, and Timmy Murphy picks up the ride. Obviously he’s got plenty on his plate to beat the impressive looking Clay Hollister, but there’s every chance he’ll grab a place and at a forecasted 9/1, that’s not to be sniffed at.
Will also be backing Cusoon (3:40 Lingfield), Moustique D’Lisle EW (3:30 Newcastle)
2007-Feb-8
Fridays Racing Tips
3:50 Wolverhampton - Bold Minstrel EW
First of all I'd like to say that despite the Stable not being in good form of late they haven't exactly had plenty of runners since last having a winner, and the class of the horses in the yard bar the odd exception are poor. This horse Bold Minstrel ran an absolute stormer here against Bond City in his two-year-old days, racing off the same weight and the winner (by 3/4L) having 11lb in hand on official weights, he was then sent on the turf grabbing a couple of nice wins off marks of 78 and 75 in handicaps. Seb Sanders (who rides him tomorrow) has ridden him before has a record of 1/3 (33%) on the horse, who made a very encouraging comeback to racing at Lingfield in November off a 1lb higher mark than today. Bold Minstrel was ridden from the front and got outpaced at the business end when things quickened up. He seems to be versatile judging by the way he can run and having been drawn in stall 11 tomorrow, he'll need to be dropped in. Almaty Express looks sure to make it a truely run race and I think Bold Minstrel has a mark he can exploit here and Seb Sanders has a 25% record for Micky Quinn (5-20) so it's interesting to see him booked for this mount. Another interesting fact is that Bold Minstrel is pretty unexposed on the AW running twice, and placing twice.
4:25 Wolverhampton - Satyricon NAP
Won in stylish fashion when skipping clear in an Apprentice Race last time out, so escapes a penalty for that win. Has the beating of Ella Woodcock here and despite that form not being overly strong, he remains well treated and over C&D under the tender handling of Oscar Urbina looks sure to go in again. The blinkers remain on which looks like an added plus to this horse which showed his improved form last time up.
CHECKOUT THE FORUMS, THEY'RE FREE!!
2007-Feb-7
Thursdays Racing Tips
1:30 Southwell - Rebel Duke NAP
Didn't seem to stay the 6f last time out at Lingfield but I think the course will have been plenty quick enough for him. Being by Namid you'd expect he'd be better suited to Wolverhampton and more so Southwell, he won very impressively on his comeback from a break at Wolverhampton and doesn't look overly penalised on that win off a mark of 75 here today. There's questions to ask about the favourite who despite having an excellent record here has gone up a further 3lbs for that and races off a career high mark, Perlachy just doesn't look very good, Hereford Boy looks badly handicapped and Grange Lili looks weighted upto her best. I'd have to say that Rebel Duke looks a playable price in a small event and his form is much stronger than his rivals. Mick Quinlan has his string in decent form and Brett Doyle is an able assistant from the saddle. I'll probably have a good bet on this tomorrow as being by Namid should prefer this surface over any of the other AW tracks.
JOIN OUR COMMUNITY FOR FREE TODAY!!
2:20 Taunton - Starnevees EW
Is held in high regard by Charlie Mann and is one of his better juvenile hurdlers in his yard. Made a pleasing enough debut when ridden to gain experience over timber, David Crosse again takes the ride and the form of his previous run is working out to be of a decent standard. 1st, 2nd, 3rd placed horses have all won since and three other horses have been placed since so the form holds well. Wise Owl looked like he was going to win on debut but didn't really find anything when asked the question so I'm abit wary about taking 8/15 about him on a track like this. I think Starnevees is overpriced at 8/1 and will have learnt a great deal from his hurdles debut and Charlie Mann has a 13% record here.
3:30 Southwell - Chief Commander
Outsider of the lot and on the face of it he does have abit to prove. Party Boss I think isn't enjoying the game despite a couple of more promising efforts but hasn't won since April 2005, Waterside ran a cracking race last time up but I think shouldered with a 6lb rise he could have abit to do, Bahamian Pirate is getting on and is due to drop 5lbs after today and doesn't look the force of old. Wessex hasn't won for five starts and looks on the downgrade. That leads me to Chief Commander who ran fourth in the German Guineas, is relatively unexposed compared to the remainder of these, and after three very disappointing runs when last seen on the track (on turf) has been gelded. His AW form is very promising with 1 win and 3 placings from 5 attempts. Ran a good race off a mark of 98 last year and gets in here off a mark of 90. Jane Chapple-Hyam has her string firing well and Brett Doyle takes the ride. Gelding this horse could well work the oracle and it wouldn't suprise me if he was upto taking this race off bottom weight.
2007-Jan-28
Mondays Racing
1:30 Ludlow – Stellenbosch EW
Is highly thought of at Charlie Mann’s yard and was never really going to win on his hurdles debut despite me having a couple of speculative shekels on for interest. David Crosse gave him a nice introduction and he beat a previous winner in the shape of Mister Benedictine. Stellenbosch will have learnt a great deal from that run and Noel Fehily takes over the reigns today. Ground will be more ideal tomorrow than it was at Kempton. Charlie Mann has a terrific record here, especially with his hurdlers where he holds a 26% record (6/23) and Noel Fehily rides the course well also. Looks greatly overpriced at the forecasted 20/1 and is worth an EW investment.
2:20 Lingfield – Comrade Cotton
Desperately green on his first two outings but showed a little more promise on his latest start behind Bronte’s Hope. Gets a 12lb pull for a 3.5 length beating, plus the additional 7lb claim of the well touted Willie Buick. The jockey on Bronte’s Hope doesn’t look very good from what I saw of her and the form can be reversed there. Comrade Cotton looks capable of picking up a race of this nature off this kind of mark and looks a value price.
4:00 Ludlow – Rustler
Hasn’t really been seen to the best effect on rain softened ground in recent outings, but gets his ground tomorrow which he’s ran well on on the level before taking up a career over hurdles. Got within a neck of stable companion Jack The Giant on the flat (Now a very highly regarded chaser) so the form isn’t all that bad and he will be seen to better effect on this course and better ground. Micky Fitz does the steering and he’s riding out of his skin at present, Nicky Henderson also remains in great form.
4:20 Lingfield – Daylami Dreams
Improved for the step-up in trip and did well to come from off a lengthy layoff to win with considerate ease. Up 5lbs for that but is sure to come on for the run and looks a value alternative to the favourite. This horse is still unexposed and likely to be under bet so is worth a small interest.
Best of luck everyone having a bet, nothing really worthy of NAP status tomorrow though, just a few small interest bets.
COME AND CHECKOUT THE FORUMS
2007-Jan-26
Saturdays Racing
Cheltenham
2:10 Cheltenham - Flight Leader
Isn't worth going in EW unless he goes over 6/1, but has really improvement for the longer trips and has won over C&D at Cheltenham. BJK has yet to race on Heavy ground and I dont think that will stop him, but he could well get beaten by the likes of Inglis Drever or Flight Leader. I'm going with the unexposed Tizzard runner who gets a handy 4lbs off the top four.
3:20 Cheltenham - Good Bye Simon
Did nothing wrong when smashing decent rivals in desperate ground at Chepstow, todays ground will have no problems for Thierry Doumens gelding. Micky Fitz again rides and he's on top of his game at the minute. The french have a good record in this race and Thierry will know how good his horse could potentially be, and therefore at 6/1 has to be respected.
Lingfield
12:35 Lingfield - Bobski NB
This horse is regarded as the best horse trained by Geoff HUffer, who's yard is ticking over. Bobski is an awkward sort but is reunited with Neil Callan who is 2/4 on the horse. Bobski has a fantastic record at Lingfield, clocking up 3 wins from 6 starts. This trip looks more his cup of tea and a rise of just 3lbs for his latest victory when beating useful yardstick Resplendant Nova, he looks still off a fair mark and capable of winning again.
3:30 Lingfield - Bahar Shumaal
This horse is one of the better AW horses and was unlucky when getting no sort of run last time out when beaten little over 2 lengths by Fusili. This race could be slowly run which will not suit this strong running free sort, but if he gets a nice lead, Seb can kick him on and hopefully turn the screw into the straight. I genuinely believe this is a Group horse on the sand, so he should be capable of taking a handicap off 97, if all goes to plan.
Wolverhampton
3:50 Wolverhampton - Bold Phoenix
Has slowly been slipping in the weights and has dropped a further 3lbs for a poor effort last time out. Has won off a mark of 50 though so he's well handicapped on the face of things. Has won round this course and over this distance. Tom Queally takes the ride and any market support is worth noting. However 7/1 look a fair price on a potentially well handicapped horse on a 'going' day.
5:20 Wolverhampton - Nusoor
Wasn't given the run of the race when fast finishing second Almaty Express, who since ran to form today. This trip will be on the sharp side for him but if he gets a better run he will be thereabouts at a fair price. Financial Times looks a little high in the weights for me, Bond Playboy is dangerous but I think he's better suited to 6f. Has to be Nusoor who's pretty much unexposed compared to a few of these.
Southwell
1:15 Southwell - Tidal Fury NAP
This is a genuine Arkle contender and has already beaten Echo Point on there previous meeting (By 18 lengths). Echo Point was impressive last time out but the longer trip looked to bring out the improvement in him. Back down to 2 miles, Tidal Fury will have no problems handling the ground over this, his best distance. Gets 4lbs from Echo Point and is worthy of a maximum bet with Leighton Aspell doing the steering.
2:25 Southwell - Mount Clerigo EW
This step down in trip will be in this horses favour, travelled like an absolute good thing until 5 furlongs out in the Welsh National and has been dropped 1lb for that run. Daryl Jacob takes a further 3lbs off and he looks capable of taking a big handicap off this weight. By Roselier so this soft ground will pose no problems on this giant of a horse. Daryl Jacob has a 50% record at the course, and with Victor Dartnall in good form and holding a 25% course record, has to be respected at a huge price of 20/1.
2007-Jan-17
Thursdays Fancies
CHECKOUT THE FORUMS FOR MORE TIPS AND CHAT
1:20 Taunton - Corum EW
One of Gosdens potential Derby horses last year and was well touted when winning on his return as a 3yo. Since disappointed and shown very little in his latest start. Ground should be ideal tomorrow and I'd hazard a guess this horse will improve with age. K Waldron does well with her horses at Taunton (33% S/R) and she has a 28% SR with her hurdles. Corum gets the 4yo allowance along with an additional 5lbs taken off his back by a very able claimer in Sam Jones. I can't believe this will be anywhere near the 14/1 priced up in the Racing Post, and I'll be considering a large-stake EW bet.
1:40 Ludlow - Dancing Bay
Is getting on in years now and this classy 10yo begins his chasing career under the hands of Mick Fitzgerald who is riding like a demon of late. Henderson has a terrific record at Ludlow, and holds a 20% record with his Chasers at the track. The ground will be ideal for Dancing Bay tomorrow and he looks a decent price in a pretty competetive beginners chase.
Nad Al Sheba Report 3:35 Nad Al Sheba - Bahiano
Always runs well here and is somewhat of an unlucky horse despite his distinct level of ability. Made a pleasing return to action at Wolverhampton 13 days ago over 6 furlongs, and remains off a fair mark for his return to Dubai. Clive Brittain has his string in good form and Willie Supple picks up the ride. Looksa big price at 13/2 and should go close.
4:05 Nad Al Sheba - Mount Hadley NAP
Wasn't fancied when springing a 40/1 shock on turf in England last time out, the horse he beat that day was the well fancied Cabinet (Since won on his next start beating one of Marcus Tregonnings better juveniles). Trained by Ed Dunlop over in England this horse clocked a markedly good time on his second start which wouldn't see him out of place in a Derby lineup. He's got alot of scope and prospect for his 3yo career and should be capable of taking this race. Champlain looks a quirky animal and a couple of the others may need the run. Mick Kinane takes the ride and this is an absolute huge price at 12/1 in the RP.
4:35 Nad Al Sheba - Expensive
Chris Walls' filly did the seemingly impossible when lowering the colours of Flashy Wings in the Watership Down Sales race, and suffered because of that last year. Wall believes his filly wasn't sparkling on the gallops last year and everything went against her, she had hot company to contest in and she just wasn't her usual self. I've read some reports recently that this filly has been blasting up the polytrack over in England and will be sent over here with races in mind in which they plan to win with her. She looks on a fair enough mark and an excellent price of 10/1 to boot, Ted Durcan does the steering and the ground should suit perfectly.
5:05 Nad Al Sheba - Speedy Sam
Is one of the best AW horses over in England and this reliable stick has run some fantastic races this winter for Karl Burke. Has been shipped over to Dubai to contest some valuable handicaps and he isn't out of place here. Looks of a decent mark for this UAE Debut and Pat Smullen takes the ride. If he handles this surface he will take some peging back, and I'd be betting on him doing so at a huge 8/1.
6:05 Nad Al Sheba - Parole Board
Lightly raced sort who was ridden with a high degree of confidence on his first run back for Satish Seemar, he won very easily over C&D and looks on top of his game. Ted Durcan again takes the ride (Successful on him last time up) and he's got the scope to find further improvement and I'd bet on him doing so at a rather generous 11/2, Hattan however looks a big threat if his latest UK run is anything to go by.
2007-Jan-17
Wednesdays Fancies
12:50 Lingfield - Desert Light
I saw this run the other day and he's a great big horse and just lacked the tactical speed to quicken down the long straight at Kempton. Adrian McCarthy was riding that day and a stronger jockey takes over here in the shape of Dane O'Neill whom is riding well. Derek Shaw is having a few winners of late aswell too which is always a good thing. Has been dropped a further 2lbs in the weights for this run and has also dropped in class. He doesn't win very often but always shows good form at Lingfield, and has won 2 of his 8 starts here. At a big price he's worth a small bet for interest.
1:00 Newbury - Pancake
Imported from France this son of Cyborg made an impressive debut over English fences at Newbury and has been schooling well since at home. This strapping horse looks a horse with a future which will lie over fences but he's more than capable of picking up some nice hurdle races along the way. Ground will suit him perfectly, and this race was won by Phillip Hobbs last year and by the Triumph Hurdle winner Detroit City, so it's interesting he's sending this horse here too, is it a sign? I doubt it but it should have too much for the remainder.
1:10 Newcastle - The Whisperer
One of Richards's best from reports I've seen and made an impressive winning debut under rules under the steering of Tony Dobbin. Was somewhat outclassed and lacking in experience when stepped into graded company the last day. Back into Novice company and ridden by the joker Rose Davidson who surely cannot get this beat? Or can she? I don't think she can but I wont be backing it, but should win this easily.
1:30 Newbury - Don't Push It
A race which was won last year by Justified, this should be taken by John McManus's promising chaser. Winner of a chase at Stratford before running Denman very close next time out, this excellent chaser franked the form by winning a competetive race last time out. Takes a drop in trip but that shouldnt be any problems for this strong travelling son of Old Vic who should also find the ground too his liking.
2007-Jan-16
Tuesdays Fancies
3:00 Southwell - Global Strategy
Hacked up last time out after being upped in trip, turns out today on a 6lb penalty for that win. Seb Sanders is smack bang in form and this will take some beating let me tell you.
4:00 Southwell - Rainbows Guest NAP
Hacked up over C&D November 05, had a year off after that and has taken a few runs to get right since. Didnt stay the mile last time out and has dropped a further 3lbs because of that so looks off a handy mark. Seb Sanders has been booked to ride, he's only ridden 10 for Balding in the last 5 years, and has a SR of 20%, so at 14/1 in an uncompetetive event full of monkeys/donkeys and rags, this unexposed horse with the visor on could be the answer.
Other Fancies:
2:10 Wolverhampton - Great Explorer
Ran a nice race on debut and finished well and definitley needed the run, I can't have a 2/5 shot trained by Karl Burke which has no guarantees of handling the surface. I think the 6/1 about Great Explorer represents abit more value and is worth an each-way bet.
3:10 Wolverhampton - Fast Heart
Was denied a clear run last time when after being switched to the wide outside got going much too late but finished well to suggest he'd of played a hand in the finish. Remains off the same mark against a field which is relatively exposed and Neil Callan again rides.
2007-Jan-6
Saturdays Nap
3:05 Lingfield - Sri Diamond
Millville his most likely danger needs a strong pace and I don't think he'll get that from this small field so he's already at a minus. Sri Diamond can lead up but prefers a handy sit and thats what the tactics were when landing the Winter Derby. Has won the last 3 times when fresh so this all bodes well for tomorrow. Jamie Spencer is 3/5 on the horse and riding well of late. I suspect Fusili and Crow Wood will make the pace which will play into this horses handle as Jamie can settle him in-behind the leading pair - Jamie Spencer is also 3/3 on the horse at Lingfield and Sri Diamond has 5 wins from 8 runs at the course. Having just two runs over todays distance Sri Diamond has won on both starts over this trip and looks a very good bet for tomorrow. He is my NAPPO and only bet.
2007-Jan-5
Fridays Racing
1:30 Newcastle - Regal Heights
I backed this last time out when the yard fancied it strongly and was just outdone for abit of stamina behind L'Antartique. They pulled well clear and Regal Heights made a couple of mistakes on his way round which might have taken about out of him at the finish. Donald McCain thinks alot of this horse and he shouldn't be beaten tomorrow if all goes to plan.
2:40 Musselburgh - Bafana Boy
Wasn't given the best of rides by Brian Harding last time out and blew up when going really well. Was off the track since the summer though and it's quite possible he needed that run. Returns here tomorrow on ground which will suit under the masterful Tony Dobbin. Looks overpriced against the favourite and should win, this could be a good day for Nicky Richards!
3:30 Newcastle - Jass
Is held in the highest regard by Keith Reveley and has been given plenty of time to grow and strengthen up with runs in bumper races. His run behind Scheihallion last time out was a big run from a time-perspective despite the victor letting the form down since with a below par run. Jass has the class to beat these and is sure to have schooled proficiently ahead of this task and should win at hopefully evens or above.
2006-Dec-22
Saturdays Racing
1:20 Bangor - Regal Heights
Don McCain regards this horse in the highest and has been waiting to send this horse over this 20 furlong trip. This distance will be perfect for him and so will the ground, McCain has a 28% record with his Chasers at Bangor, and Steven Craine has a 23% record when riding on the Chase course. This is likely to be underbet tomorrow against the perenial bridesmaid in L'Antartique who's got solid form but just can't seem to win. I'd be looking to take that on and this looks the perfect bet.
JOIN UP TO THE BEST GAMBLING COMMUNITY ON THE WEB
3:35 Southwell - La Colline
Is 2/2 over C&D, Patrick Hills rode him two starts ago and won easily by 5 lenghts. This filly is improving and can easy cope with a 12lb rise for her latest win. Patrick Hills takes 7lbs of that off, which should make it much easier for this filly. Willie Haggas has an excellent 32% record with all runners at Southwell, and with his 3yo's he has a 39% strike rate. Patrick Hills also has a 33% strike-rate at the course. This will be a short price but shouldn't get beat tomorrow.
Two worth noting tomorrow...
2006-Dec-22
Fridays Racing
1:40 Lingfield – Red Spell (NAP)
Has really good course form at Lingfield which has resulted in 4 wins from 12 starts and 5 seconds. He ran a sound race off level weights with Vortex (Giving away 5lbs today) in a race which wasn’t run to suit him. Red Spell needs a brisk pace to get the best out of him and he simply didn’t get that the last day. Kindelight Debut and Savannah will probably try and make the pace here and I’m hopeful of a more brisk pace on show tomorrow. Cupids Glory can also make it but there’s a concern about his fitness after a 470 day lay off. He was beaten on his return after a layoff last year and there has to be every chance it will happen again tomorrow. Red Spell ridden by Richard Hughes who’s in fantastic form, rides this horse well and this can win tomorrow at a decent price.
This is my nap and only bet tomorrow.
2006-Dec-20
Thursdays Tips
1:00 Southwell - Rafferty
Absolute mile clear on official figures, has ran well over C&D before and has a good jockey booked in Graham Gibbons. He has a full 23lb pull at the weights with his closest rival on the BHB figures and should take this in a bloodless success.
3:00 Southwell - Jimmy The Guesser
Runs better with abit of cut in the ground and he'll handle this Southwell surface better than any, his form at Wolverhampton is pretty darn good, and his form over 6f at Wolverhampton reads (1,6,1). Ran a cracking race off 1lb higher over a trip too far last time out but was still only beaten a length. Dropped a 1lb for that run and Hayley Turner takes the ride, dropped down in trip to 6f and must go close - will be finishing late and fast.
5:50 Wolverhampton - Market Watcher
Improved with leaps and bounds over this latter part of the summer and won on a tight reign in an albeit weak event last time. Gone up in the weights since but I think there's more to come from this horse. He clocked a time rated as Listed class in his latest win and I'll be following him again tomorrow.
2006-Dec-17
Mondays Racing
2:55 Kempton - Colonel Bilko E/W
Needs to be held up and come with a late run and hasn't been helped in his last two races. First when running off a 6lb higher mark when making rapid headway 2 furlongs out to contest the lead, then came under the pump and weakened over a furlong out. I think the jockey got to the front too soon that day and he looks the type that needs to get there with only yards left to go. His next race he was held up well out the back and began to make headway when hampered by a horse called Robin Sharp who basically stopped to a walk infront of him. Marc Halford managed to rekindle an effort late on and Colonel Bilko flew into fourth, albeit well beaten. He runs in this race off the same mark (40), and is on better terms for a 6l beating by Bowl Of Cherries two outings ago, despite being out the handicap. That was off a mark of 46, and he's been dropped 6lbs since that. I know this horse is abit of a thinker but I don't understand why he's 25/1. JJ Bridger is also ticking along decent enough with a few recent winners and with the blinkers back on, he could be in form and ready to strike at a huge price.
3:35 Wolverhampton - Where's Broughton NAP
Came through cruising to pick off the leader in her latest race. Willie Musson has done well with the horses owned by Broughton Thermal Installation before, and this filly scored in fine style on her 3yo debut after two runs as a 2yo. Italian Romance (2nd in the race) has since gone on to run close off a mark of 73 in a handicap, so this mark of 75 allotted to Where's Broughton, with the expected improvement for her comeback run and the booking of a more experienced jockey in Brett Doyle all bode well and this should go off a backable price.
3:45 Taunton - Bumper NB
With Tony McCoy having just two rides tomorrow, one who looks like a plodding sheep in the shape of River Tigris, and this (both for David Pipe). Bumper looks his most likeliest chance of a winner, especially with the expected improvement for this step-up in trip. Bumper is bred to be stamina aplenty and has run with credit over shorter trips than this. Ground will pose no problems to him either and McCoy knows how to get these types of horses to win.
2006-Dec-15
Saturdays Racing
12:25 Haydock – Tidal Fury NB
Shouldn’t find ground conditions too harmful tomorrow as his runs in France suggest he handles very soft conditions well. Holds the course record at Auteuil over 18f, and is still only a 4yo. Didn’t stay the extended 3 miles last time out but dropped back to 2 miles here and getting weight from all rivals this can go in again at what looks a fair price to start the day. Noel Fehily has an 18% course record at Haydock and is ahead of all his other jockey rivals.
2:05 Haydock – The Bajan Bandit (E/W)
Now you might laugh at this forecasted 25/1 tackling the likes of Rhinestone Cowboy and the like, but the biggest attribute in racing to take into account (in my opinion) is the ground conditions. The ground is described as heavy tomorrow and when racing on that kind of surface, The Bajan Bandit’s form reads (8R-5W-0S-0T). He’s recorded 5 wins from 8 runs on Heavy ground and his record over the distance is very impressive too. Over a trip of 20 furlongs, The Bajan Bandit has a record of (5R-4W-0S-0T), all of these stats are boding well and he’s already won at Haydock in his career. May well have needed his two comeback runs this season as it’s proved he has in his previous two career seasons. Looks overpriced tomorrow at massive odds against a horse which hasn’t ran for over 950 days, Jazz D’Estruval is the only danger and probably the one to be on at the prices, but I’ll be backing this each-way.
2:35 Haydock – Wild Cane Ridge NAP
This is one of my favourite horses and he repaid my faith when winning in style off a 6lb lower mark last time out. He was eased significantly in the closing stages when slamming Mister McGoldrick up at Ayr when sent back over fences and looks to be value for more than the official winning margin. Keith Mercer took over last time and gave the horse a proper ride (unlike Brian Harding) and it shows the kind of ability this horse has. The time recorded last time was that of a Grade 2 class animal, and he’s been given just a 6lb rise for that win, he looks potentially well in here despite shouldering top weight and the step-up in distance will suit him down to the ground. His form on heavy ground reads (4R-3W-0S-0T) and he could well be a very nice price under Keith Mercer who is 1/1 (100%) on the horse. Lenny Lungo could possibly have a big priced double if the 2:05 race and this one go to plan.
3:20 Ascot – Kia Kaha
This is regarded as the nicest bumper horse Jonjo O’Neill has and beat a well regarded rival of Paul Nicholls’s when making a winning debut. Will go on the ground no problems and this should be a winner for McCoy/Jonjo.
3:40 Lingfield – Maltese Falcon
Is unbeaten over C&D at Lingfield and has won his last two races with new tactics employed. Has gone up another 4lbs for his last win but this horse still looks ahead of the handicapper and better than this field from what I can work out. Nelson De Souza is 2/2 (100%) on the horse and has partnered him on his last two starts. Paul Cole has his string in terrific form and The Falcon looks a nice price tomorrow to complete a hat trick.
2006-Dec-14
Fridays Racing
12:45 Uttoxeter – Come On Johnny
This looks an absolute shoe in for this smart flat recruit who on his only ever run on today’s described conditions (Heavy) resulted in a facile 7L success of decent rivals in the November Handicap in 2005. Ralph Beckett has a 100% record at Uttoxeter with his only previous running doing the business. All of the remainder look slow or exposed and providing this horse can jump should piss all over these and if the forecast 11/10 in the Post is around tomorrow morning it has to be snapped up!
2:00 Ascot – Pepporoni Pete
Was very impressed with this horses debut over hurdles and he recorded a stylish time which would put him in good stead for landing on of the novice showpieces at Cheltenham in March. Ruby Walsh is on again and Paul Nicholls has a 23% record here with his hurdlers. The form of Moon Over Miami last time out looks suspect as the race thrown up a very weird result and I think the step back to 2 miles will hinder his chances. Carlitos looks alright but doesn’t look that good judging by his hurdling debut and this can be a second success over timber for Pepporoni Pete.
3:10 Ascot – Made In Montot
Was travelling well and making headway when falling last time out and this drop back to 17 furlongs will be another plus point for this French Bred gelding. Will have improved for those two outings and providing that fall hasn’t dented his confidence looks well handicapped off a mark of 131. Ruby Walsh rides again and ground conditions won’t be a problem as he’s won on this ground before.
3:20 Wolverhampton – Bahar Shumaal NAP
Has clocked times which entitles him to be Group 1 class on the all-weather and somewhat disappointed when handed with wide draws on all starts since his facile success in a handicap here in October. Eddie Ahern has been saddled up today and has been drawn in the 1 box, this looks ready to me to strike again and getting weight from Millville and Alpine Reel who I rate as his main rivals, together with his tendency to pull if trapped out wide (He’s drawn on the rail so should get a lead through) Eddie Ahern is a master of the all-weather circuits and he will know what to do tomorrow. Clive Brittain has a fantastic record at Wolverhampton with a 18% overall, and 25% with 4yo and above.
3:30 Uttoxeter – Murphy
This is regarded as the best bumper horse Carl Llewellyn has in his care and this full brother to Dempsey should relish tomorrows testing conditions. Will have been put through his paces in work leading up to this and he should certainly be fit enough to take this. The remainder of the field doesn’t pose many threats unless there’s a superstar amongst them, and Murphy can start his career off with a win.
5:50 Kempton – Bomber Command NB
Landed a nice race in a Group Class time over C&D two outings ago, and finished second over a mile when fading inside the final furlong last time out. Hills again takes the ride and seven furlongs looks his ideal distance. Has to give abit of weight away to his main rival in Dig Deep but I think Bomber Command still have room for improvement and he can win again tomorrow. Patrick Hills has a 23% course record on all rides at Kempton and teams up with John Hills whom he does rather well for him having accumulated an 18% strike rate together. The forecast 3/1 in the RP looks fair enough and I’ll be on this tomorrow.
Get the best odds with puntersodds !
2006-Dec-14
Thursdays Racing
CHECKOUT THE NEW BETTING FORUMS WEBSITE!!
2:20 Catterick – Silver Jack NAP
I’m not really one for betting at Catterick let alone on races like this, but this thing catches my eye tomorrow. By Roselier so the ground should be perfect for this one tomorrow who came back really well after a summer on his back. Now 8yo they usual tend to improve a good deal in the weights to Roseliers progeny. This horse also seemed to enjoy the step back up in trip last time out, and these horses can find upwards of 25lbs of improvement from the earlier career when 8yo and above. Still looks fairly well handicapped for that success last time out. Dominic Elsworth rode him last time and is back on board again and this should be a nice winner for the yard tomorrow at what looks a nice price.
2:40 – Pole Star NB
This is a selection taken on trust because if he’s taken to jumping fences better at home he should dot up on his very best form. Looked out of sorts since taking a heavy fall last backend and his confidence would have taken a battering. Has since been moved to Evan Williams who has we know is making a big name for himself recently with his excellent training feats. I’m sure he’ll have perked this up and it could be allowed to go off reasonably large. Williams has a good 16% course record so this one has to be noted and is worth a speculative bet if the price is good enough.
Poor days racing really and wouldn't class them as a proper Nap & NB, small stakes.
Check out Puntersodds for the best odds!
2006-Dec-13
Wednesdays Racing
12:15 Newbury – Pauillac NB
Shown a fair level of form over in France, and accounted for Pommerol (In with a shout when falling 2 out behind Katchit lto). 4th in that race Polinamix has come over to David Pipe and won hard on the bridle yesterday. Made a very pleasing debut over hurdles when last seen on the track and will have no problems on this softer surface which is what I can’t say about a lot of these. This looks a nice bet to be on today all being well.
12:50 Newbury – Hot N Holy
Has been handed an 8lb rise for a neck victory last time out but I think he won with a slight bit more in the tank. Didn’t jump perfect throughout his both chasing starts but he will have learnt from those two outings now and can put in a much better show today. Has form in today’s going which a few of these haven’t and looks well handicapped on the face of it. Ruby Walsh does the steering and although I cant see this winning under a hand ride, it should win today, if it jumps well enough.
1:10 Lingfield – Green Pirate
I’m not usually a fan of backing on Banded Racing but this horse caught my eye when finishing fast and late (despite hanging) when an unlucky second behind Mozie Cat. George Baker has been put back on the horse after he was apprentice ridden last time up, and Baker knows the score as he was a fast finishing third over a shorter trip when he rode it the time before. This mile trip should be round abouts perfect and with a pro jockey on board, he can help to correct this horse’s habit to hang during the finish. Will need to sit for as long as he can and then kid him alone up the stretch as he isn’t the most genuine of sorts but does have abit of ability.
5:50 Wolverhampton – Inch Lodge NAP
This horse is a course specialist round here and his form reads (1,1,1) when running at Wolverhampton. You can forgive his latest poor showing at Kempton now he’s back to his favourite track. There are question marks over the field with Lake Poet not really running well on the all-weather, La Estrella has issues with settling during a race, and Ocean Pride only won a weak claimer (plus has only ever won in single figure fields). Micky Fenton has been jocked up for this and he’s better than Paul Eddery whose rode this last twice and the course expert can win again at a good price.
|
