Psycho_rants

I stated in one of my earlier ravings that only 15% of those laying systems that were being proofed on a well known proofing web site were profitable at betting exchange odds.   Well, there's a consequence to this.  The consequence is that layers need to understand arbitraging. 

Not knowing about, or not understanding, arbitraging when you are laying is a bit like driving a car in a busy city without having had the benefit of driving lessons.  Unless you are extremely lucky - you are going to crash!

Laying without arbitraging is what I call the 'Laying and Praying' method.  You had better hope that the good Lord hears your prayer.  Otherwise, you might as well put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye - along with your money!  Simply laying a horse/greyhound at the best available betting exchange odds and hoping for the best, in my experience, may work in the short-term, but doesn't work in the long-term.   

Why is this?

Simple - really!

Approximately 55% of the laying systems that I've looked at are profitable at SP.  However, when laying on a betting exchange, the lay odds are well above the SP.  In addition, betting exchanges levy a 5% commission on winning bets.  When the inflated odds and commission are taken into account, only approximately 15% of the laying systems that I've looked at are profitable. 

In addition, all systems are cyclic in nature.  They go through good, as well as bad, periods.  As such, the bad periods may well wipe out the profits accumulated during the good periods - and more besides.  Maybe that's why most people leave laying services somewhat disenchanted with them.   

Therefore, layers need to reduce the odds at which they lay at.  Otherwise, they will more than likely lose money.

The only way that I know of reducing the odds is to totally, or partially, arbitrage the initial lay bet.

Arbitraging involves placing a lay to lose bet followed by the placing of a back to win bet on the same horse/greyhound.  The back to win bet must be at odds which are greater than those of the lay to lose bet.  The stake on the back to win bet must be less than, or equal to, the lay to lose bet.

Arbitraging also has another advantage.  It can smooth out the ups and downs of a system such that losses, incurred during the system's losing periods, are minimised and therefore don't wipe out all of the profits accumulated during the previous winning periods.

My advice to layers who don't know about, or don't understand, arbitraging is to find out about it. 

My advice to those who know and understand arbitraging is to use it.

To those layers who either can't understand it or can't be bothered to - my advice is STOP Laying - because, the chances are, you ain't gonna win!

If you want to know more about arbitraging, go to either of the sites at the end of this document and email me.  I will then send you some information on the subject.

Psycho

www.laythepsychicway.com

www.psycholaysdogs.com

So, there I was, yesterday, minding my own business.  As one does.  I then wondered how often a horse, whose SP is 100/1, really wins.  This only serves to confirm that I really am a sad old git.

Anyway, I know of a web site where answers to such questions can be found.  So off I went.

Easy peasy.  A few ticks here, a few clicks of the mose there and, hey presto (whatever that means) we had our answer.

22,131 horses have started their races in the UK at odds of  100/1 since the start of 1999.  Of these, only 53 have won.

Ba**ards, I thought.  Am I allowed to say that word on here?  Probably not!

The reason for this sad old git's outburst is that the bookies of this world have a lot to answer for.  A very large lot.

Look.  If a horse is quoted at 100/1, then, if the odds are a fair reflection of its chances of winning, then, by definition, it should win 1 race in 101 races.

Therefore, if 22,131 horses have started their races at 100/1, then, 219 of them should have won.  Instead, only 53 have actually won.

What does this mean?

It means that a horse whose odds are quoted as 100/1 actually has a 2 in 1,000 chance of winning or 1 in 500.  Therefore, when a bookie quotes a horse's odds as being 100/1, it should actually be about 500/1.

Therefore, if you were to back 500 horses to win at odds of 100/1, on average, you will win only once and the bookie will win 499 times.  That's why you never see a poor bookie.  Bas***ds.

This explains something else.

People always complain about the high lay prices on the betting exchanges.  Their complaint is that they are high compared to SP.  Well, now you know why.  Betting exchange prices more fairly reflect the horse's actual chances of winning - which bookie prices don't.

Basically, if you can lay a horse, whose SP is 100/1, on a betting exchange and the lay odds are less than 500/1, lay it.  You are getting a good deal!

That's my rant for the day.

More soon.

Psycho

www.laythepsychicway.com

www.psycholaysdogs.com

Hi everyone

On 7th. January 2007, I looked at the horse race laying systems currently being proofed with a well-known, independent proofing service.  I was shocked.  Only 55% of the systems, currently being proofed, were profitable at SP!  The rest (45%) weren't. 

Now, you can't go to your friendly local bookmaker and lay a horse.  That's his job!  So, you have to use one of the betting exchanges when laying a horse.

If one takes a nag, at random, you will find that the betting exchange odds, on average, are approximately 20% higher than SP.  At the higher-end of the SP odds, the betting exchange odds can be up to 10 times higher than SP.  I could explain the reason for this, but I'll leave that one for another day.

Also, betting exchanges take up to 5% commission on winning bets.

I ask you, given all that, how's a boy supposed to earn a decent crust in this world?

Anyway, moving on....

I increased the odds of the selections of the systems being proofed by 20% and included the 5% commission levied by the betting exchanges on winning bets.

What did I find?

You may well ask!

Only approximately 15% of the systems being proofed are profitable at betting exchange odds and commission.  The other 85% aren't.

So.  There you go.  You shell out your hard-earned hoping to make your fame and fortune and, what do you find?  Youv'e purchased a system that isn't profitable.  Well, whoop de bloody doop!

I ask you again, given all that, how's a boy supposed to earn a decent crust in this world?

At this point, I feel that it is only fair to point out that the above figures are based upon a staking plan devised by the proofing service and not the staking plans associated with the individual systems.  Even so, it's gonna take one hell of a staking plan to make some of the systems on sale profitable!

Anyway, that's my rant for today.

More to come.

Stay tuned.

Psycho

www.laythepsychicway.com

www.psycholaysdogs.com