Laying and Praying - why it doesn't work
I stated in one of my earlier ravings that only 15% of those laying systems that were being proofed on a well known proofing web site were profitable at betting exchange odds. Well, there's a consequence to this. The consequence is that layers need to understand arbitraging.
Not knowing about, or not understanding, arbitraging when you are laying is a bit like driving a car in a busy city without having had the benefit of driving lessons. Unless you are extremely lucky - you are going to crash!
Laying without arbitraging is what I call the 'Laying and Praying' method. You had better hope that the good Lord hears your prayer. Otherwise, you might as well put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye - along with your money! Simply laying a horse/greyhound at the best available betting exchange odds and hoping for the best, in my experience, may work in the short-term, but doesn't work in the long-term.
Why is this?
Simple - really!
Approximately 55% of the laying systems that I've looked at are profitable at SP. However, when laying on a betting exchange, the lay odds are well above the SP. In addition, betting exchanges levy a 5% commission on winning bets. When the inflated odds and commission are taken into account, only approximately 15% of the laying systems that I've looked at are profitable.
In addition, all systems are cyclic in nature. They go through good, as well as bad, periods. As such, the bad periods may well wipe out the profits accumulated during the good periods - and more besides. Maybe that's why most people leave laying services somewhat disenchanted with them.
Therefore, layers need to reduce the odds at which they lay at. Otherwise, they will more than likely lose money.
The only way that I know of reducing the odds is to totally, or partially, arbitrage the initial lay bet.
Arbitraging involves placing a lay to lose bet followed by the placing of a back to win bet on the same horse/greyhound. The back to win bet must be at odds which are greater than those of the lay to lose bet. The stake on the back to win bet must be less than, or equal to, the lay to lose bet.
Arbitraging also has another advantage. It can smooth out the ups and downs of a system such that losses, incurred during the system's losing periods, are minimised and therefore don't wipe out all of the profits accumulated during the previous winning periods.
My advice to layers who don't know about, or don't understand, arbitraging is to find out about it.
My advice to those who know and understand arbitraging is to use it.
To those layers who either can't understand it or can't be bothered to - my advice is STOP Laying - because, the chances are, you ain't gonna win!
If you want to know more about arbitraging, go to either of the sites at the end of this document and email me. I will then send you some information on the subject.
Psycho